A view of the record · berkeleybuild.com · as of 2026-10-07

The Pipeline State

Where every tracked housing project stands right now, binned by the furthest hard evidence on its record — dates, permits and inspections, never status labels alone. The pattern to see: Berkeley's pipe doesn't close by denial; it narrows by waiting.

3,446149 projects16,924171 projects220573 projects3883178 projects44,968901 projects5

Block width ∝ units. Exits: 60 (1,219 proposed units) withdrawn by their applicants; 8 (13 proposed units) denied; 10 (766 proposed units) expired or voided. UC projects excluded (self-permitted, counted in beds).

■ 1 · Applied — not yet entitled

3,446 units across 149 projects

In intake or under consideration at the planning counter. The clock that matters here is deemed-complete → decision.

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
1931 San Pablo Ave3232022-03-174.6 yrsPre-Application
1900 Fourth St2602018-03-088.6 yrsUnder Review
1914 Fifth St2572020-09-256.0 yrsUnder Review
2920 Shattuck Ave2422022-09-034.1 yrsUnder Review
2601 San Pablo Ave2232022-12-023.8 yrsUnder Review
1581 University Ave1582024-06-142.3 yrsUnder Review
2733 San Pablo Ave1522023-06-223.3 yrsUnder Review
2847 Shattuck Ave1362024-06-182.3 yrsUnder Review
2420 Shattuck Ave1322022-10-283.9 yrsUnder Review
2720 San Pablo Ave1172024-06-182.3 yrsUnder Review
2847 Shattuck Ave1122022-09-284.0 yrsUnder Review
2109 Milvia St1052023-07-073.3 yrsUnder Review

Showing the 12 largest by units — 149 projects total in this state.

■ 2 · Entitled — waiting for a building permit

6,924 units across 171 projects

THE WAITING ROOM. Fully approved and legal to seek a permit — nothing is being built. Housing dies of waiting here, not denial. Under BMC 23.404.060 a permit becomes LAPSE-ELIGIBLE one year after approval unless exercised (a filed building-permit application protects; the declaration is discretionary). The tiers, from the record: 4 projects (1,466 units) are MOBILIZING with live permit applications; 19 (1,403) are fresh; 146 projects (3,931 units) are ALREADY LAPSE-ELIGIBLE — the city has declared none of them lapsed. (2 more show an issued permit not yet linked to the project in our record — data queue.)

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
1750 Sacramento St7392024-12-111.8 yrsMOBILIZING — BP application live (B2025-05535, Pending Payment)
1974 Shattuck Ave5992025-06-031.3 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE (since 2026-06-03)
2128 Oxford St4562024-09-122.1 yrsMOBILIZING — BP application live (B2024-00318, Approved w/Conditions)
2700 Shattuck Ave3592026-07-090.2 yrsfresh (<1 yr entitled)
2190 Shattuck Ave3262023-04-063.5 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE (since 2024-04-06)
2029 University Ave2402025-11-130.9 yrsfresh (<1 yr entitled)
2274 Shattuck Ave2272025-04-221.5 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE (since 2026-04-22)
1899 Oxford St2222026-01-220.7 yrsMOBILIZING — BP application live (B2026-02298, Pending Payment)
2015 Blake St2192021-09-235.0 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE (since 2022-09-23)
2115 Kittredge St2112024-06-042.3 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE (since 2025-06-04)
2100 Milvia St2012025-06-121.3 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE (since 2026-06-12)
2065 Kittredge St1892023-01-313.7 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE (since 2024-01-31)

Showing the 12 largest by units — 171 projects total in this state.

■ 3 · Permit issued — no construction activity

205 units across 73 projects

A building permit was issued more than two years ago and the record shows no inspection ever called on it. 73 projects sit here.

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
1740 San Pablo Ave542025-12-180.8 yrsno inspection on record
2587 Telegraph Ave522025-04-141.5 yrsno inspection on record
2317 Channing Way172025-09-081.1 yrsno inspection on record
1331 Ashby Ave62023-04-043.5 yrsno inspection on record
2371 Oak St22025-09-181.1 yrsno inspection on record
2707 Rose St22024-08-282.1 yrsno inspection on record
1218 Santa Fe Ave22021-06-095.3 yrsno inspection on record
3228 Adeline St22018-11-027.9 yrsno inspection on record
2701 Durant Ave22023-05-013.4 yrsno inspection on record
1729 Eighth St22025-08-111.2 yrsno inspection on record
1627 Jaynes St22026-01-140.7 yrsno inspection on record
2523 Tenth St12022-11-143.9 yrsno inspection on record

Showing the 12 largest by units — 73 projects total in this state.

■ 4 · Under construction

883 units across 178 projects

A building permit is issued and the work is being inspected. Of these 178 projects, 116 had an inspection in the last six months, 62 were last inspected more than six months ago, and 0 have a permit issued within the last two years and no inspection yet. The last column gives the latest inspection on the record.

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
1598 University Ave2072024-07-152.2 yrslast inspection 2026-05-20
1701 San Pablo Ave1102025-05-061.4 yrslast inspection 2026-05-13
2538 Durant Ave832024-09-242.0 yrslast inspection 2026-05-21
2300 Ellsworth St692025-09-041.1 yrslast inspection 2026-05-22
2902 Adeline St542025-02-271.6 yrslast inspection 2026-09-22
2024 Ashby Ave502026-03-260.5 yrslast inspection 2026-09-16
2442 Haste St382026-05-200.4 yrslast inspection 2026-09-21
2403 San Pablo Ave362025-06-031.3 yrslast inspection 2026-05-22
2328 Channing Way132024-09-052.1 yrslast inspection 2026-05-20
3051 Adeline St82019-11-126.9 yrslast inspection 2021-08-24
805 Jones St62024-09-062.1 yrslast inspection 2025-11-13
2330 Blake St62025-07-301.2 yrslast inspection 2026-09-21

Showing the 12 largest by units — 178 projects total in this state.

■ 5 · Complete

4,968 units across 901 projects

Every building finaled — certificate of occupancy issued, keys in doors.

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
2133 University Ave2052022-10-254.0 yrs
2352 Shattuck Ave2042023-08-083.2 yrs
1500 San Pablo Ave1702020-09-116.1 yrs
2176 Kittredge St1692024-03-202.6 yrs
1951 Shattuck Ave1632024-10-242.0 yrs
2001 Fourth St1522018-07-318.2 yrs
3030 Telegraph Ave1442026-04-160.5 yrs
2012 Berkeley Way1422022-09-234.0 yrs
2580 Bancroft Way1172021-11-294.9 yrs
1950 Addison St1072022-08-094.2 yrs
2451 Shattuck Ave100——
2116 Allston Way91——

Showing the 12 largest by units — 901 projects total in this state.

The levers — what could move the stalled states

The record tells us the exposure — how many units sit in each state and for how long. Whether a lever moves them is policy judgment, so every lever wears its tag.

Entitlement shot-clock & extension certainty modeled

Entitled approvals quietly age out: 3,931 units are already lapse-eligible under BMC 23.404.060 and none has been declared lapsed. A standing extension policy with a use-it-or-lose-it horizon makes the waiting room a queue instead of a shelf. Exposure: 6,924 units now in state 2.

Defer city fees to certificate of occupancy modeled

Fees due at permit issuance front-load cost onto the exact moment financing is hardest. Deferral to CO moves the bill to when the building earns. Exposure: 6,924 units now in state 2.

Permit-extension triage on the stalled shelf modeled

Contact every permit older than 18 months with no activity: extend the live ones, retire the dead ones — the register stops hiding both. Exposure: 205 units now in state 3.

Derived 2026-10-07 from the canonical v4 database (its serving view v_projects, through the same projection as the Explorer, so the two agree: each state is a group of the Explorer's stages). Stage dates: first application / entitlement / first building permit / the last building's certificate of occupancy. Construction activity = the inspections on the record for the project's buildings; a permit issued more than two years ago with no inspection ever is "no construction activity". Waiting-room tiers = BMC 23.404.060 one-year lapse-eligibility from the entitlement date, plus the building-permit APPLICATIONS found in the 2015-2026 harvest (data/processed/waiting_room_lapse_2026-07-14.json), each re-checked against the City's current listing of that record — lapse declaration is discretionary, so 'eligible' is a legal state, not a prediction. The ≥50-unit subset is gate-checked against the audited JN-K funnel baseline (2026-10-07) at generation time. Coverage: tracked projects (the full permit-level record lives in the Audit). Generator: scripts/gen_pipeline_state_page.py — the page regenerates from the record; numbers are never hand-edited. ← berkeleybuild.com