A view of the record · berkeleybuild.com · as of 2026-07-21

The Pipeline State

Where every tracked housing project stands right now, binned by the furthest hard evidence on its record — dates and events, never status labels alone. The pattern to see: Berkeley's pipe doesn't close by denial; it narrows by waiting.

4,15994 projects15,47034 projects2783 projects367016 projects43,693703 projects5

Block width ∝ units. 2 projects (66 proposed units) were withdrawn by their applicants — the only exits are voluntary. UC projects excluded (self-permitted, counted in beds).

■ 1 · Applied — not yet entitled

4,159 units across 94 projects

In intake or under consideration at the planning counter. The clock that matters here is deemed-complete → decision (median 410 days for majors).

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
Ashby Bart6182025-01-011.6 yrs
2190 Shattuck Ave4522025-11-210.7 yrs
1914 Fifth St2572023-06-203.1 yrs
2920 Shattuck Ave2422022-10-043.8 yrs
2601 San Pablo Ave2232023-01-133.5 yrs
1581 University Ave1582024-07-122.0 yrs
2733 San Pablo Ave1522023-09-182.8 yrs
2115 Kittredge St1482024-09-171.8 yrs
2420 Shattuck Ave1322022-10-043.8 yrs
2847 Shattuck Ave1322022-11-233.7 yrs
2720 San Pablo Ave1132023-06-203.1 yrs
2109 Milvia St1052023-09-132.9 yrs

Showing the 12 largest by units — 94 projects total in this state.

■ 2 · Entitled — waiting for a building permit

5,470 units across 34 projects

THE WAITING ROOM. Fully approved and legal to seek a permit — nothing is being built. Housing dies of waiting here, not denial. Under BMC 23.404.060 a permit becomes LAPSE-ELIGIBLE one year after approval unless exercised (a filed building-permit application protects; the declaration is discretionary). The tiers, from the record: 4 projects (1,499 units) are MOBILIZING with live permit applications; 8 (1,286) are fresh; 16 projects (2,334 units) are ALREADY LAPSE-ELIGIBLE — the city has declared none of them lapsed. (6 more show an issued permit not yet linked in our record — data queue.)

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
1750 Sacramento St7392026-03-030.4 yrsMOBILIZING — BP application live (B2025-05535)
1974 Shattuck Ave5992025-06-031.1 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE since 2026-06-03
2128 Oxford St4852024-10-041.8 yrsMOBILIZING — BP application live (B2024-00318)
2700 Shattuck Ave3592026-07-090.0 yrsfresh (<1 yr entitled)
2276 Shattuck Ave3362025-12-040.6 yrsfresh (<1 yr entitled)
2274 Shattuck Ave2992025-04-221.2 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE since 2026-04-22
2029 University Ave2402025-11-130.7 yrsfresh (<1 yr entitled)
1899 Oxford St2122026-02-110.4 yrsMOBILIZING — BP application live (B2026-02298)
2100 Milvia St2052025-07-011.1 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE since 2026-07-01
2131 University Ave2052013-07-0813.0 yrspermit exists (v2 link gap) (B2015-02995)
2065 Kittredge St1892021-07-225.0 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE since 2022-07-22
2015 Blake St1682020-07-106.0 yrsLAPSE-ELIGIBLE since 2021-07-10

Showing the 12 largest by units — 34 projects total in this state.

■ 3 · Permit issued — no construction activity

78 units across 3 projects

A permit exists but the inspection record shows no recent activity — verified against every permit's full inspection history (harvested 2026-07-14). Two projects have permits and have NEVER called an inspection.

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
1740 San Pablo Ave542025-12-180.6 yrsnever
2317 Channing Way222022-11-013.7 yrsnever
1716 Seventh St22023-06-063.1 yrs2025-04-25

■ 4 · Under construction

670 units across 16 projects

Dated inspection evidence on the record (last inspection within 6 months — several inspected this very week). Once building starts, 95% of units reach completion.

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
1598 University Ave2072024-01-012.6 yrs2026-07-10
1701 San Pablo Ave1102023-06-013.1 yrs2026-07-01
2538 Durant Ave832024-10-011.8 yrs2026-07-09
2300 Ellsworth St692025-09-040.9 yrs2026-07-10
2902 Adeline St542024-01-012.6 yrs2026-07-14
2587 Telegraph Ave522024-01-012.6 yrs2026-06-30
2016 Ashby Ave502024-06-012.1 yrs2026-06-30
2403 San Pablo Ave362024-01-012.6 yrs2026-07-14
1464 Sixth St32025-09-180.8 yrs2026-06-30
1614 Sixth St32025-08-290.9 yrs2026-06-30
5 W Parnassus Ct12025-10-080.8 yrs2026-05-13
1111 Allston Way12024-03-202.3 yrs2026-01-29
0 Parker St12025-07-141.0 yrs2026-07-10
811 Cedar02025-09-260.8 yrs2026-06-25
2328 Channing Way02024-09-051.9 yrs2026-05-20
2330 Blake St02025-07-301.0 yrs2026-07-10

■ 5 · Complete

3,693 units across 703 projects

Certificate of occupancy issued — keys in doors. The audited count.

projectunitsin this state sincetime in statestatus evidence
2352 Shattuck Ave2372022-01-144.5 yrs
2150 Kittredge St1692024-03-202.3 yrs
1951 Shattuck Ave1632024-10-241.7 yrs
1500 San Pablo Ave1592020-09-115.9 yrs
3030 Telegraph Ave1442026-01-270.5 yrs
2012 Berkeley Way1422022-09-233.8 yrs
2580 Bancroft Way1172021-11-294.6 yrs
2000 Dwight Way1132025-06-171.1 yrs
2100 San Pablo Ave962023-05-023.2 yrs
2001 Ashby Ave872025-06-011.1 yrs
2590 Bancroft Way872023-11-152.7 yrs
2000 University Ave822024-01-012.6 yrs

Showing the 12 largest by units — 703 projects total in this state.

The levers — what could move the stalled states

The record tells us the exposure — how many units sit in each state and for how long. Whether a lever moves them is policy judgment, so every lever wears its tag.

Entitlement shot-clock & extension certainty modeled

Entitled approvals quietly age out: 2,334 units are already lapse-eligible under BMC 23.404.060 and none has been declared lapsed. A standing extension policy with a use-it-or-lose-it horizon makes the waiting room a queue instead of a shelf. Exposure: 5,470 units now in state 2.

Defer city fees to certificate of occupancy modeled

Fees due at permit issuance front-load cost onto the exact moment financing is hardest. Deferral to CO moves the bill to when the building earns. Exposure: 5,470 units now in state 2.

Permit-extension triage on the stalled shelf modeled

Contact every permit older than 18 months with no activity: extend the live ones, retire the dead ones — the register stops hiding both. Exposure: 78 units now in state 3.

Derived 2026-07-21 from the canonical v2 database (stage dates: first-application / entitlement / first non-subsidiary permit / verdict-driven CO — the MIN-semantics fields corrected 2026-07-10); construction activity = the harvested inspection record (all 23 primary permits of states 3/4, full histories, 2026-07-14 — see data/processed/inspection_activity_2026-07-14.json), falling back to observed-start/topping-out events or status only where no inspection data exists; waiting-room tiers = BMC 23.404.060 one-year lapse-eligibility modeled on entitlement dates + building-permit APPLICATIONS found in the 2015-2026 harvest (data/processed/waiting_room_lapse_2026-07-14.json — lapse declaration is discretionary, so 'eligible' is a legal state, not a prediction); permit evidence = the view's first non-subsidiary permit ONLY — the 2026-07-14 adjudication removed the any-permit-event fallback after harvest verification showed the four affected majors' only permit events were trades permits (three have never filed a primary building permit; 2138 Kittredge is phased mid-permitting). The ≥50-unit subset is gate-checked against the audited JN-K funnel baseline (2026-07-15) at generation time. Coverage: tracked projects (the full permit-level record lives in the Audit). Generator: scripts/gen_pipeline_state_page.py — the page regenerates from the record; numbers are never hand-edited. ← berkeleybuild.com